Harvest Moon: Some personal thoughts on past and future directions in animal breeding research

It was with great pleasure that I served on the editorial board of this journal for almost twenty years, gaining many insights into developments concepts and practices in our scientific field. Now, as gladly hand over task to younger colleagues, take opportunity present some thoughts where we are should go animal breeding research. The major objective is generate genetic progress. Note “progress” has a positive connotation, meaning aims at changing populations desired, direction. This different from “selection response”, which neutral also can wrong direction, often see cases correlated selection responses fitness traits. An important research therefore be enable progress, although certainly not only reason breeding, also, example, provide revealing more general biological mechanisms. In areas lies greatest potential further promote progress practical breeding? will discuss using two (and rather old) namely index breeder's equation. (Hazel,1943, Genetics 28: 467) provides conceptual framework definition goal. value traits here defined economic terms; specifically, marginal utility coefficient needs specified each trait. While overall concept proven extremely powerful it must doubted all goals fully expressed terms. By large, nowadays' most livestock species composed parts: roughly one half attributed an increase production value, producing better milk, meat, eggs etc. by improving source production-related income farmer. other so-called functional traits, originally were affect ability productive first place. Initially, these related health, fertility efficiency, but now extended welfare (beyond health medical sense) environmental impact. These latter aspects linked broader societal expectations towards thus indirectly secure markets products longer term. immediate impact saving costs, example through reduction expenses vets feed. But actual trait “calving performance” dairy cow appraised detailed account costs saved vet drugs, working hours spent (including night-time surcharges), reduced milk performance, increased service period eventually calf and/or replacement case fatal outcome? welfare, there additional non-monetary consequently hardly quantifiable aspects, interlinked: suffering affected animals, loss male Holstein due difficult calving may economically marginal, obviously serious aspect, society long term accept losses “by-product” programme, detrimental long-term effects willingness consume products. A purely approach never catch full such causing too low weight complex goals. parts explains certain misdevelopments unacceptably high piglet mortality rates high-fertility breeds, or frustratingly slowly increasing longevity cows. Defining key entrepreneurial challenges organization, always anticipated future conditions, demand structures socio-economic context account. Personally, expect Western countries objectives have respond much greater extent society's terms scepticism excessive industrialization production. International commitments coordinated actions limit global heating assign importance complexes nutrient direct greenhouse gas emission climate adaptation. term, even prepared decline consumption meat products, their inherent “climate inefficiency” relative plant-based diets. its limitations here, hence alternative approaches, spirit “desired gains” indices revisited considered. Such would benefit intensified exchange community experts economics, business social sciences. determine go, programmes describe, how get there. core breeders' equation, dates back Lush's seminal book “Animal Breeding Plans” 1937. From simple equation apparent, basically three main levers accelerate progress: intensity, accurate values shorter generation intervals. fourth factor usable variation, plays role mainly maintaining possibility avoiding erosion variance inbreeding, while possibilities effectively limited cases. lever primarily affecting efficiency (i.e. costs) economics performance testing. reviewing literature recent decades, my impression (which admittedly subject personal bias) disproportionate amount been devoted single factor, accuracy estimation, considerably under-researched. Since introduction basic BLUP Henderson mid 1970s, few significant methodological steps, like establishing models, random regression models and—most remarkably—the genomic estimation. addition, seen extensive countless variations established evaluation methods, found miniscule ranking candidates context. especially so era, whole “alphabets” developed without ever leading sustainable advantage robust methods GBLUP. Other efforts aimed identifying genes QTL could help make predictions. approach, era “marker-assisted selection” 1990s carried selection, not, exceptions, significantly improved contribute Although excellent arguments conducting understanding basis directly convincing among them. strong focus placed aiming values, intensity interval, received comparatively little attention. Selection particular making crucial profitability programmes. Both elements programme design less technical organizational. why focused topics last years decades. Another shortcoming lack suitable methodology optimize modern programmes, no represented form, nature need adequately designed. article issue, ideas unifying based modular allows comprehensive representation any complexity. Based this, possible evaluate ultimately functions. Using advanced per cent, translates same margin. argue relatively achieve similar higher proportional interval stringent organization process. However, innovative alternatives, nucleus type cattle, systematic use reproductive technologies semen embryo sexing cloning, novel approaches automated phenotyping. being said, course do leaving other, combine efficient implementation reflect time.